Asia’s Export Surge: ADB’s 5.0% Growth Forecast Boosts Regional Outlook
Asia’s Export Surge is driving an impressive economic growth forecast by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The ADB has raised its growth projection for developing Asia and the Pacific to 5.0%, up from the previous estimate of 4.9%. This positive revision is attributed to rising regional exports and resilient domestic demand.
ADB’s Upgraded Economic Forecast
The ADB’s latest report highlights that the economic outlook for next year remains steady at 4.9%. A key factor behind this upgrade is the rebound in exports post-pandemic, which has significantly boosted economic growth across the region. Additionally, inflation is expected to slow to 2.9% this year, influenced by easing global food prices and higher interest rates.
Key Drivers of Economic Growth
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park emphasized that most of Asia and the Pacific are experiencing faster economic growth than in the second half of last year. The post-pandemic recovery has been particularly strong, with exports playing a crucial role in this resurgence. Despite moderated inflation, price pressures remain high in some economies, especially concerning food inflation.
Country-Specific Forecasts
The growth forecast for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is maintained at 4.8%, driven by a continued recovery in services consumption and stronger-than-expected exports and industrial activity. In contrast, India’s outlook remains unchanged at 7.0% for the fiscal year 2024, supported by robust growth in the industrial sector and agriculture.
Source: ADB
Regional Outlooks
The growth forecast for Southeast Asia is steady at 4.6%, while the outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia has been raised to 4.5%. The Pacific’s growth forecast for 2024 is maintained at 3.3%, underpinned by tourism, infrastructure spending, and revived mining activity in Papua New Guinea.